PowerPoint Title

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Risk Ranking Framework
The I= FT-FDA Cooperative Initiative

Presentation at JFSAN Workshop: Tools for Prioritizing Food Safety Concerns

Nga Tran

June 4, 2007

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Topics

•Overview of IFT-FDA risk rankin= g = prototype

–Risk Criteria=

–Issues and considerations in ranking across microbes and chemical food risks

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Overview: The Charge

•Develop a risk-ranking framework

•Facilitate the evaluation and ranking of microbiological agents, toxins, and = chemicals

–&= #13;

–Quantitativel= y or semi-quantitatively comparing and determining potential health threats

–&= #13;

–Evaluating interventions or control points … to protect the food supply= .

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Overview: Participants

Frank F. Busta, PhD (U. Minnesota)

•Sherri Dennis, PhD (FDA)

Joseph Hotchkiss, PhD (Cornell Univ.)

Lee-Ann Jaykus, PhD (NC State)

Jennifer McEntire, PhD (IFT)

Marianne Miliotis, PhD (FDA)

•Rosie Newsome, PhD (IFT) <= /span>

Greg Paoli, MAS (Decisionanalysis)

Barbara Petersen, PhD, MPH (Exponent)

Donald Schaffner, PhD (Rutgers Univ.)

•Fred Shank, PhD (IFT)

Bruce Tompkin, PhD (ConAgra)

Nga Tran, DrPH, MPH (Exponent)

Mary Wagner, PhD (E & J Gallo Winery)

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Overview: The Process

<= span style=3D'font-weight:normal'>•Two years (2003-2005)

<= span style=3D'font-weight:normal'>•Reviewed literature and other developments

•Developed risk ranking criteria modules and integration algorithm <= /span>= •Developed, deliberated, implemented and peer reviewed a web-based prototype&#= 13;

<= span style=3D'font-weight:normal;visibility:hidden'>•

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Risk Ranking Prototype Highlights

•Risk criteria

–Exposure (prevalence and concentration, food intake)

–Dose response

–Risk characterization and public health impacts

•Module components

–Expert insight, evidence databases <= /div>

–Hazard metrics/weights, decision logic, help files = ;

•Module integration via algorithms and evidence = = hierarchy

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I) Primary <= b>Production

II) Processing

<= /span>

III) Distribution

IV) Retail, <= b>Consumers

<= /span>

P= revalence, concentration= at depa= rture from the farm gate

Prevalence, <= /span>concentration at the shipping dock (upon leaving the manu= facturer)

Prevalence, <= /span>= concentration after distribution and stor= age

A. Likelihood of hazard introduction?

B. How Controllable is the hazard?

C. Potential for abuse, mishandling

P= revalence, concentration= at time of consumption

Food Intake

Risk Criteria: Exposure

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Prevalence and Levels

•Expert insights (microbe); Data/Evidence (chemical)

•Prevalence: yes/no (microbe); non-detects (chemical)

•Enumeration:

–log units/g (microbes)

–g/g scale (chemicals)

•

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	P= rototype:Farm to fork continuum; Prevalence and concentration; Food intake


	= The current prototype is heavy on microbe exposure modeling form farm to table with a focus on prevalence. While it’s also important to understand during what stage of production a= nd the likelihood that chemical agent would be introduced, the concentration= of chemicals on foods as close to the dinner table and limit of detections a= re issues of importance on the chemical side


	Key is= sues: module components